022. I heard Miss Winter - 3G Decisive Force Times (below) - Bowen Preview

022. I heard Miss Winter - 3G Decisive Force Times (below) June 2, 2010

best quotation




any new product to be successful, the first consumer products to switch from the old to the new product should be strong enough sense of crisis; second, switching costs should be sufficiently low.




our consumption into three levels: one is necessary, the second is like, there is a desire.




strange Chinese people are willing to spend money to hire their own people listen to songs (ringtones).




3G era everyone into an information terminal. In this state, everyone will have a TV station without a license.




blog is now used as a text, only the equivalent of a newspaper without a license, publishing without a license.




what the company will be able to win? It can bring its unlimited extension of the company's boundaries, become very blurred.












worldwide and recession prospects for 3G business in China? Whether the user is strong enough to switch the crisis? 3G Will and SMS services, ring tones as a unique consumer demand in China? Welcome to \



sitting open up the economic life of the Renduermo, Hello, everybody! Welcome to today's \Bo Van Hello!




Hello, everybody!












the three pillars of the world dominate




Earlier we talked about a topic that is about the coming of 3G era. We found that the 3G era shows two very important messages: first, the state hopes to introduce competition so that those former monopolies with competition, such as China Mobile, of course, the ultimate beneficiaries are the people. In addition, we also talked about the industry boundaries become increasingly blurred, for instance, after China Mobile is likely to also play the role of banks, insurance companies, the role of health management company's role, the role of property management companies and so on. Such a pattern of this industry, three companies will be affected? Where you Laijiang Jiang Bo.




to introduce competition is good, but also led to a duplication problem. In the previous program we talked about monopoly inside there is a certain rationality, it sounds outrageous, but in some sectors inside a monopoly if you do not, then it is very wasteful. For example, rail, allowing you free access to the industry. You build a railway, and I next to you to build a railway, and train so much, and finally was left vacant. Airport is the case, you build an airport, I built an airport, and planes so much. So if you do not exercise some degree of monopoly, then it will lead to great waste of resources, in the example electricity, water, roads and other such industries, including communications, it features the industry itself requires a limited access mechanism.




why some people are worried, once voted in three different networks, China now has TD 3G network, with CDMA2000 net and WCDMA networks, is not it?




right.




after the event in 2035, the world situation has changed, no 3G, but rather 4G, what shall we do? State money is spent.




it or something for the first three operators inside, the last is definitely the winner-take-all, its very large share of the other two on the very small, even eaten, have such a possibility. But it was originally put those are the same infrastructure, cost, cost about the same, that is, the money the last three is a role, it leads to waste of resources.




this from another point of view would not be a good thing? There is a view on that, at least, stimulating domestic demand through investment, and promote consumption - we are now talking to stimulate domestic demand is not it?




so mean? It must have a win inside three companies, as well as two follow-up or be weeded out, although the Three Kingdoms, and ultimately to dominate the world.












switch crisis




this topic is really talking to people on a little shudder, and anyway, is easier said than done we the people, Let us discuss the three companies can take their own strategies to gain some market share. For example, if today you Wu Bo Van China Telecom invited to make a proposal to them, how can China Telecom to gain market advantage in a short time?




to which the company can not simply make up a prescription, but first of all no matter which company, in introducing a new technology, products and services, it also should remember some of the the basic principles that others paid for with a price.




new products, new technology adoption process must abide by two rules. The first is the user should be sufficiently strong to switch the crisis. What switch crisis? Over the past ten people inside a car, we have not such a switch crisis - I want to buy cars. Now you have a car, and I also have cars, and 10 individuals have had five or six people, a few other people will think that this crisis is to strong, I do not have the car looked very different, and so it failed. So any time a new product introduction, ensure that it is the first successful consumer product to switch from the old to the new products should be sufficiently strong sense of crisis. If the crisis is not strong, in other words, your old products with new products, technology seems to vary widely, but the difference between the actual effect is not significant, or the difference with his life, weak correlation, he would Without such a sense of crisis, switch the crisis was very small.




second, switching costs should be sufficiently low. If he switched crisis very strong, but the high cost of switching, he would not go to switch, will not adopt new technologies. Industry in the history of many such examples. Good technology, good products, but eventually ended in failure, that is because of the good technology does not lead to a good demand, this demand should be a very strong, with a crisis of demand, so this thing for just can be insular, entertain. Such as Iridium phone is like this. Motorola Iridium phone is a very good technology, it launched 40 low-orbit satellites, and then you anywhere in the world, whether inside or ocean inside the desert, you can call. Let the technology very well, cool? But you think about it, how many people think of the desert inside call it?




Robinson to go to a desert island, need to phone how to do?




this seems to be a very good technology, that up is really good, but when the final release, said that only 2,000 customers in the beginning, in fact, it is to maintain operating costs If at least 20 people, so this will -




died in the womb, and die a natural death, Motorola's Iridium satellite phone that nothing came up.




Microsoft also introduced to a tablet computer, very busy, then we have never seen, because in the United States pushed this thing when you think of this as a very new things not very useful. Dragon of the technology, nothing to do with me, I use it with useless it really is not much difference between the sense of crisis is not strong. If the crisis is not very strong but also very cheap, maybe someone will use it. If the crisis is not strong, the cost is also high, prices still high, the problem is very big.












demand, pursue, or luxury?




I while ago I went to the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom's 3G technology has been developing for many years, I asked a local friend, I say to you why the main use of 3G phones? They said, we do not know why brought, as if no one in the UK 3G telecom company to do to make money. Watch TV? He said, I am sick, ah, I get so small a cell phone to see what TV, are now home to watch so much TV I do not use cell phones? Internet, receive e-mail? He said that 3G phones can not receive messages, and now BlackBerry has collected quite good, right? Why do you say to that? Play the game? 3G can not play games ah. The problem came. We explore this issue, hype of 3G services after how applications can be, right? However, it seems, at least in the UK was not so mature application.




fact, not only in the United Kingdom, to the future in the global 3G launch has not reacted strongly, many 3G operators are losses.




right, and yellow before engaging in an Orange, 搞得 large one, but later found not to earn money, put Orange to sell, that is the thing.




first 3G technology to come up on a challenge faced by very large, people do not care about you in this thing, is to look at you with such products and services are not a necessary thing he . There are three levels of our lives, a need - need, the second is like, there is also a desire.




second want is to want.




right. The third is the desire - the desire. Daily lives when faced with real money, we sometimes can not tell which is what I need, which is what I want, which is what I expect. I would like to have a private jet, I would like to have a helicopter, this is what ah? Is called the luxury, like the question. Need? I probably need a leased vehicle or a Jetta car, travel, right? When a new product out in the end to meet the need, want or expect, it is important to operators when launching the product must take this into account.




I have noticed a phenomenon, the licensing of the stock after the three companies are dropping.




have lost more than 10%.




I find interesting is that investors \You talk about truth, what concepts, the last capital market investors is still very smart, they come to a conclusion: the stock in the fall.




that investors are not optimistic about this thing, it is fatal. You Say well, but everyone would like, this thing may be useless it.












consumption of Chinese mobile phone




at least from the other countries which do not see a useful application, but we are not a conclusion so quickly, you know that the Chinese people's creativity is very strong.




and Chinese people's consumption desires with other people also are not the same message this kind of thing you say to the Chinese very well developed, Americans can not understand how the Chinese people love texting .




you think so?




this reason is a Chinese tradition.




I think Chinese people are more sensitive to the text.




are sensitive not only to the text, as well as the Chinese do not speak directly, like around that do not like face to face. Provide a request or make a quibble, if he is calling you face with the truth, sorry.




I guess another reason is that China, the \You see, we basically do not use the beginning of text messages, at best, some people who made 12 to power Huafei message, the result was later discovered that, due to many people in China before the piece is speaking at the dinner table, then become a so-called \I found a very interesting phenomenon, that is, before I know many of my friends particularly like speaking a number of jokes at the dinner table so that everyone is happy, right?




right, entertain, and he is very happy.




doing things now is it? We both face to face dinner, I sent you a piece is, ha ha. What I mean is, maybe the Chinese people's wisdom to make some so-called 3G \Will this be possible?




demand, especially in the information, the media needs in this area is not the same. China has its particularity: a message that this is not the same as with the whole world, then developed; there is a karaoke OK, OK is the Japanese invented karaoke, but the fire up in China, the United States, Europe most do not understand why Chinese people like this way.




you talking about the things we run about a little problem. I also invested in a travel company, last year ran a number of different places, I found a very interesting phenomenon. You go to Europe, Europeans live in is really very boring, very boring. The point home to sleep one night, eat sandwiches every day at noon is at best a weekend once a party is always at the barbeque, nothing special and more. Which, like China, Gesanchaiwu have a bath, a karaoke OK, still playing mahjong or mahjong following Anzhuo feet above the banner, just how rich these life ah. So two days ago I heard a lot of foreigners during the Olympic Games to Beijing after all feeling, \



forms of entertainment in the mobile phone inside, and a Westerners do not understand the special place that is China that ring tones - their own money to let other people listen to songs. Others hit you over the phone when the release of that song, but also costs money, but you is not heard it, you want to hear had to take a listen to other phones allocate their own. But strange enough, the Chinese people are willing to spend money on other people listen to songs their own.




why China Mobile is still a very capable business innovation companies, advertisers came back and we continue to explore, is not in China's \Some bizarre \











1.0 from business to business 2.0, industry, the unlimited extension of the boundary will be What kind of amplification effect produced? Communications operators and how to face the ubiquitous digital age? Welcome to \



from business to business 2.0 1.0




Yes, still is sitting open up the economic life of the Renduermo the \. Bo Van Hello!




Hello, everybody!




a sudden I was a bit out of breath, the main reason is that I have mentioned the name of Peter who, when a sudden flash of a very strange idea. Wu Bo, if one day those who are not \Now, \



a topic we have just mentioned, is now overseas, at least outside of China and other places on the application of 3G is not particular popular, anyway have not heard of a company for which developed to do 3G. China can have some \Chinese people have already extended to the foreign text to be added, can not think of the state, have also talked about Wu Bo Van topic on ring tones, which is the Chinese people as a surprise to the world: I am willing to spend money to other people songs.




couple of days ago I called a person, phone ring tones the beginning, \male, \Do small behold, in fact, behind it there is a very important concept, because it is in fact in line with the so-called new media is a very important law, called \China Mobile will be able to think of you listen to other people's ring tones, can be put this one a copy to my phone ringing inside, when people call me is \



like to wear clothes, it is to satisfy this desire. You in the street to see who wore a dress was beautiful, you press a key, \Actually dressed the same way, spend their own money to anyone the only thing.




yes ah, ha ha. Or their own money to let other people see them dressed main purpose is to let people see money, not spend money to help people to see. Said that, you think what might have applied? We are probably ranked about which applications may be in the 3G era suddenly became a \



predict consumer demand, it is very difficult to very difficult.




very stupid things, ha ha.




you can take the time to catch the signs. How could such wishes come true? This demand is it? Then you carefully and try to figure out: Oh, that he has, she also has. Oh, this is a business. So other people so that we do not, such as 3G operators in a foreign country do not make money, then certainly do not make money in China, not necessarily. Like a foreign, who may not like the Chinese carrier by a message to earn millions. There are ring tones, ring tones recorded by some people also earn special to a lot of money. You all can not think of a variety of ecological chain of small minutiae a small product, a small service also earn, as if someone else crumbs fall from the well could get him raised a large, well fat.




recently saw a news saying that the United States, a young man came up with a software for iPhone use is when you can switch the voice call. You can switch your phone voice Bill? Clinton's voice, Bill? Gates voices, the voices of Obama, that you play out like Obama speak. This software is very cheap, research and development after coming out of you a download, quick download to your mobile phone above can be applied, once said to earn millions.




popularity is entirely possible, especially criminals, I think.




but I would say the key is that the future is likely that these so-called \



right, this is the platform of strength, should become a commercial business 1.0 2.0. What is 2.0? That in the past you are a production center, others are consumers, it is a common innovation platform: you are both producers may also be consumers, others the same way, both the consumer may also be producers. The typical difference is the \What companies will be able to win it, it can bring its unlimited extension of the company's boundaries, become very blurred. Industry boundaries become increasingly blurred, you have the company's borders become increasingly blurred. Recessive to hire you, or even zero cost to hire those who create value for you, he may just be your original consumer, you may find that the producers. You can put a little piece of mind tricks - in the past that kind of fluff - amplified by the ability to put the platform was infinite, and it would make you the value of this platform was a huge upgrade.












ubiquitous computing




you talk about the things that I suddenly thought of another thing. In the traditional telecom network era, there will be a big ticket situation international Internet companies, from Sohu, Sina and later to Baidu, Tencent, and now out of Youtube, Facebook, potatoes ah whatever. You say there may be as 3G era, these companies make money not specifically the result of a big ticket success of new Internet companies?




it definitely yes ah, Every Generation there is talent out of leading the trend in 2035.




still king of the city flag of the first transformation, is not it?




right. The three portals of the old industrial past, Sina, Netease, Sohu is now a little bit into the old words, now is the new Romance of Three Kingdoms - Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, is not it? There may be over two years, the emergence of new Romance of Three Kingdoms, Five Kingdoms, Romance of the eight countries, it is entirely possible.




but I would like to talk, you said Five Kingdoms, Romance of the eight countries may finally be a new three, you have not found the \



right ah, myriad things Well.




it not then a lot. 2, was relatively small, four more appear. \There is a wonderful world that is the mathematical law in supporting, although it did not say deliberately only to three, but you will find always the \But inside the industry like Coke is not three, only two oligarchs, huh, huh. Wrote back. You would think that because of the 3G future of the entire Internet, there may be some changes in the pattern, there is what kind of change can give you some reference? Because we are now many young people to employment, there are a lot of friends to start, that there may exist inside a little bit of a chance?




in Negroponte's \He did not foresee 3G, he said the Internet - just a computer terminal for receiving the Internet, he did not expect such a new mobile terminal. Such terminals are small in size than in the past, more powerful, and most importantly, easy to carry everywhere. This is the time in 1991, Xerox's chief scientist proposed, called \He believes that the future of computing is computing from the desktop - the last of a computer in the desktop computing - into a network computing, but the network cable is always calculated from this office to that office, this one to that one. He said that the calculation of the future must be \This \It is the unity of production and marketing - the unity of producers and consumers. In this state, Negroponte raised a vision is that everyone will have a TV station without a license.




now a blog, podcasts, not that such a thing?




right, now is used as blog writing, only the equivalent of a newspaper without a license, publishing without a license - a small, mini-oriented. As the wireless Internet and 3G wireless broadband Internet access, which in this context, the last one the media have become multimedia: text, audio, video.




including the hyperlink - hyperlink, it links to other sites at any time up, recommend a website or something.




right, it becomes a multimedia platform, it can be a TV station. For example, several of our people, 10 individuals, 20 individuals, 100 individuals, each sharing program. I made a program for you, you are free to edit, you edit as you approach, compiled into a platform you own, own a television, I also have my own a television. Or I through the establishment of a virtual alliance, we see things every day to their exchange. Then see who's editing capability, doing doing is likely that one day, there is also a 3G era Guo Degang, or JK Rowling.




fact you mentioned this, I have been a different kind of fantasy scenarios. We now cross the entire week Pidianpidian to Beijing city, you sometimes flew from Guangzhou, came to such a studio, but also waiting for our old horse, old horse had to drink a beer can begin to We recorded program. If one day we can all inside their own home, radio's effect is not bad - at best you are afraid of repercussions, his drill into the blanket inside the blanket which have not had that response, and the sound-absorbing effect is better - while we can sleep while doing programs. Wow,kids karaoke, old horse in his bed, you in your bed, I in my bed, or do not know who you are in bed, ha ha. Anxious nag out to our circle, that time is running out.




good, very grateful to Peter who discussed with us, the Imagination of a future 3G wireless communication era all the various possible, but also hope that our friends can log on to the \Relativity, \Thank elder Wu, goodbye!












Iridium Phone: 1997-1998, the United States launch of Iridium dozens of satellites for global mobile satellite communications, these satellites called Iridium. Iridium mobile communications system is commissioned by the United States Iridium Motorola designed a global satellite mobile communication system, via satellite can be allocated to any place on Earth and receive telephone signals. Expensive \In addition to Motorola's investment and funds raised by issuing shares, the Iridium company borrowed about 30 billion in debt, the monthly interest on debt alone reached more than 4000 million.


2000 年 3 月 Iridium bankruptcy. The new capital injection in 2001 after receiving back from the dead, the U.S. military is its main customer.




and yellow; full name and Hutchison Whampoa Limited, the company operating in 54 countries around the world five core businesses, employees, about 22 million people, is a \



Barbeque: abbreviated BBQ, which means \General practice is to put charcoal barbecue table, and then compiled metal grill on the charcoal at the top, then raw fish, meat and other food placed on grill rack and apply some spices in the food. In Western countries, BBQ is a more popular way of cooking, usually outdoors,home karaoke machine, in Australia and New Zealand on Christmas party, BBQ is also very common.




Xerox: Chester Carlson was a patent `solicitors and amateur inventor, he was in New York in 1938, a simple laboratory, successfully fabricated the first electrostatic copy images. Later, a manufacturer of photo paper Haloid purchased to develop and market the invention of the copier Carlson permission. As \word \The two words in 1948 to market the same time. In 1961, the company changed its name to Xerox Corporation. The last decade, Xerox has successfully themselves from a black and white analog copier for the main products of the company to a supplier of digital color and document solutions provider.